Before parliamentary elections in Moldova, the Russian Federation launched a large-scale information operation using the same scenarios it used in Ukraine before the attacks on the Drama Theatre in Mariupol, the Kakhovka dam, and the prisoner-of-war camp in Olenivka. This is evidenced by an analysis conducted by legal advisors at Global Rights Compliance, authors of the report on the use of Russian propaganda and information alibis, “Manufacturing Impunity: Russia’s Use of Information Alibis.”
In particular, on September 23, Russian foreign intelligence stated that the European Union allegedly intends to “…keep Moldova in line with its Russophobic policy. This is to be done at any cost, up to and including the introduction of troops and the actual occupation of the country.“ The Russian Foreign Intelligence Service also reported that NATO forces were allegedly preparing a ”landing” in Odessa to intimidate pro-Russian residents of Transnistria and thwart their plans to destabilize Moldova.
Later that day, Russian news agencies began spreading messages that clearly corresponded to the narratives of the above-mentioned statement. “Europe is preparing to occupy Moldova”; “At this stage, NATO member states are concentrating their armed forces in Romania near the Moldovan border”; “NATO is preparing to deploy forces in the Odessa region to intimidate Transnistria, with the first group of soldiers already arriving in Odessa”; “Brussels has no intention of abandoning its plans to occupy Moldova, even if the situation immediately after the elections does not require external intervention”, etc.
The tactics, scenario, timing, and methods of this information operation are clear signals that closely resemble the methodology documented in Russia’s aggressive war against Ukraine, namely the use of a specific form of disinformation known as “information alibis.”
Information alibis involve the preemptive dissemination of false information, carefully crafted to deflect responsibility for international crimes from the actual perpetrator or state onto another party for the crime it plans to commit. By constructing these deceptive narratives, Russia aims to commit crimes with impunity – absolving itself of culpability through the manipulation of the information landscape as an integral contribution to the criminal act.
As described in a recent report by Global Rights Compliance and The Reckoning Project, “Manufacturing Impunity: Russian Federation Information Operations in Ukraine,” similar tactics were used prior to the attacks on the Drama Theater in Mariupol, the Kakhovka Hydroelectric Dam, the prisoner-of-war camp in Olenivka, and other crimes against the Ukrainian people. Government agencies and Telegram channels spread an alternative narrative—directly contrary to Russia’s actual plans—and actively promoted it before, during, and after the attacks, until the misleading narrative partially obscured the truth about the crimes. The goal is to facilitate the crime in such a way as to sow doubt about the guilty party and cloud public debate long enough to advance military, geopolitical, and criminal objectives.
In this way, Russia may well use this information alibi as a justification for future aggression against Moldova. At the same time, it may facilitate further military operations in the Odesa region and, in line with the typical Russian scenario, be accompanied by numerous attacks on the civilian population.